Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is part of the “strategic planning” family, and focuses on dealing with an uncertain future.

There has likely never been a better case to engage in scenario planning than right now. The current recession has not been caused by economic conditions, which makes it more difficult to forecast. The pandemic is a wildcard, that has created unprecedented global economic impact.

Below is a comparison between Strategic and Scenario Planning:

Strategic Planning
  • Routine and reoccurring intervals ——>
  • You start out with a vision ——>
  • You have metrics in place ——>
  • Solid data with known conditions ——>
  • Dealing with strategic opportunities ——>
  • Based on what we want to seize ——>
  • The focus is on growth ——>
Scenario Planning
  • Extraordinary and situation-based
  • You end up with a vision
  • New metrics will emerge
  • Lack of data with unknown conditions
  • Dealing with strategic risk
  • Based on what we need to overcome
  • Focus is on survival

This unique process engages five comprehensive stages: defining a focal point, identifying driving forces, recognizing critical uncertainties, developing plausible scenarios and establishing strategic responses. Below is the foundational tool, Scenario Planning Matrix, used when developing scenarios and strategic responses.

Scenario Planning Matrix

Scenario Planning

Much more so than with strategic planning, effective scenario planning requires a seasoned facilitator.

Our principal (President and Chief Growth Strategist), Andrew Ballard is a recognized expert in strategic and scenario planning. In addition to facilitating over 500 planning sessions, his book (Your Opinion Doesn’t Matter) details these processes and demonstrates positive outcomes. Andrew currently teaches and shares his insights as an Adjunct Faculty member at the University of Washington School of Business.

Back to Strategic Planning

To schedule a free consult with Andrew, call 425-337-1100 or Click Here.